Gallium nitride device market poised for continued strong growth

The market forecast for both gallium nitride based optoelectronic and electronic devices is projected to grow to nearly $1.3 billion in 2004, and to more than $4.8 billion in 2009, compared with $420 million in 1999. The corresponding 10-year CAGR is 28%.

The history
At present, the only gallium nitride (GaN) based devices in the marketplace in large volume are light-emitting diodes (LEDs). Since the announcement of the first high-brightness GaN-based blue LEDs by Nichia and Toyoda Gosei in late 1993, a robust worldwide market for these devices has developed. In a little over six years, the market has grown from virtually nothing to $420 million in 1999.

Since 1995, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) has been 79% (see Figure 1). GaN-based blue, green and white LEDs are used in a variety of applications, including full-color outdoor signs, automotive interior lighting, traffic signals, backlights for cell phone displays, niche illumination applications, and general purpose indicator and display applications.

R&D explosion
In addition to the dramatic market growth mentioned above, there has been a corresponding growth in the worldwide research, development, support and manufacturing activity related to GaN. This activity extends to electronic devices, such as microwave power HEMTs, in addition to optoelectronic devices such as LEDs, laser diodes and detectors.

Today there are nearly 100 companies and more than 200 universities and research centers worldwide engaged in GaN materials, device and process research and development. Additionally, there are nearly 30 companies supplying supporting infrastructure (materials, deposition equipment, analysis, etc.). The largest concentration of this activity is in Europe, with over 130 organizations involved in GaN development, followed by North America, Japan, and the Asia-Pacific region.

Although the GaN LED market is well established, research and development is continuing on a wide range of GaN-based optoelectronic devices. R&D on LEDs is focused on improving device efficiencies. For example, a long term goal for white LEDs is to improve performance to levels greater than 100 lm/W, compared to the 20 lm/W typical of today's devices, in order to compete in the general illumination market with incandescent bulbs and fluorescent tubes.

In the case of blue diode lasers, even though Nichia has already demonstrated 10,000-hour lifetimes and begun shipping devices commercially, other laboratories around the world are working to match Nichia's achievement. In addition to improving device lifetimes for low-power (5 mW) laser diodes, several laboratories are also developing higher power devices (better than 30 mW) that can be used in rewriteable optical storage applications. A number of laboratories are working on UV photodetectors for visible blind applications, and limited commercial sales have already begun.

Strong growth
With optoelectronics leading the way, the GaN-based device market is forecast to experience strong growth over the next 10 years. High-brightness LEDs will continue to penetrate the outdoor sign, automotive, traffic signal, and display backlighting markets, as well as to capture an increasing variety of niche illumination applications. Blue laser diodes will begin to be used in high-density DVD drives in 2002 and to capture a large share of the optical storage market in subsequent years. The electronic device market is forecast to begin in 2002 with modest shipments of RF/microwave and high-temperature devices, and to expand in subsequent years to include power switches, power rectifiers and high-voltage rectifiers.

For further information on this topic, refer to the recently-released report Gallium Nitride 2000: Technology Status, Applications and Market Forecasts. The report is available from Strategies Unlimited at telephone (650) 941-3438 or e-mail info@strategies-u.com. It assesses the current status of gallium nitride (GaN) technology, reviews the present and future applications of GaN-based devices, and forecasts the device market for the next 10 years. Both optoelectronic and electronic devices are addressed.

About the author…
Robert Steele is an analyst with Strategies Unlimited.